Why energy shortages could cause the worst economic crisis since 1945 (2)

Yesterday, Philippe Murer looked at the energy crisis in this article. We provide continuity now.

If France depends only 17% on Russia for its gas supply, Emmanuel Macron decided to give it to Germany, which is 55% dependent on Russia, in exchange, say, for electricity. , which our Germanic neighbor probably won’t forget either. In addition, Macron closed Fessenheim and therefore lacks 2.5% more electricity in France this winter. In late summer electricity prices, that is 8 billion euros a year, about three times the cost of its construction. As the nuclear sector suffered from lack of interest and lack of investment, because maintenance was “done in a functional way”, half of the remaining reactors were closed. It seems highly unlikely that EDF will succeed in getting all nuclear reactors back to work this winter. Assume (reasonable assumption) that EDF has successfully operated three quarters of its nuclear reactors this winter. For many years, France has been buying electricity from other European countries on peak days. So France has to buy a lot more, sometimes a quarter of our usual nuclear production. Because some countries produce more than 20% of their electricity with gas that is likely to run out, they probably won’t be able to sell us electricity! A power cut, perhaps for several days, is therefore almost inevitable. This means the closure of companies and therefore their vulnerability, or cuts for households and the impossibility of heating for some, of cooking for others, of accessing the Internet, television or even reading for everyone. France is not alone in these difficulties, other countries are always dependent on gas for electricity and energy. So there is no surprise in the fact that the market prices of gas and electricity are multiplied by factors of twenty and twelve respectively, although the exit from the European electricity market may be possible to control these prices and avoid such a drift.

Shortages, inflation and high energy costs are very likely. The economy is renewable energy. A perfect storm scenario is on the horizon. The beginnings have been difficult for our textile industry. Arc, Ascométal and Duralex have announced that they are closing their factories “temporarily” due to extremely high energy prices: they are losing a lot of money by staying open! The president of System U announced that his electricity bill will be doubled next year. For medium-sized companies like the Dechaumont foundries, this is a multiplication of four to six expectations, or destruction for this energy-intensive company if the situation continues. Currently, the production of aluminum and zinc in Europe has been halved. Arcelor has reduced production at seven sites in France. While they have to reduce their activity, producers of zinc, copper, nickel or silicon say that their lives are at risk! Fertilizer manufacturers can no longer produce at a reasonable price, because gas is so expensive. WHAT in our food next year? If Russian energy does not flow quickly to Europe, our industrial fabric and that of Europe will be partially submerged. And it’s not the start-ups that will save the day. If the situation could improve a little, the problem could last a little less than five years. And in the last five years, energy is more expensive in Europe than in Asia because it comes from far away and not all options are open in Europe. So it is a future of destruction of our economic and social fabric and inflation that awaits us if the situation is not taken in hand. Right now, we are helplessly watching a kind of suicide in Europe. Let’s remember, finally, that our moral sanctions that have resulted in the explosion of energy prices everywhere in the world have a serious impact on the economy and on the already fragile daily life of the inhabitants of the poor. country.

How did we get there?

At the risk of shocking beautiful souls, there is a form of cretinization in public life that can be explained in particular by the abuse of communication, which has gradually replaced rational analysis. With the European Commission effectively proposing to think for the countries in more areas, the political parties of Europe for years only need to use this roadmap and repeat it like parrots, little change or in argument. It is, moreover, advisable if you don’t want to pass a bad nationalist politician. When our President goes to Brussels, he also faces the European Commission and 26 other countries with different interests. Then it’s hard to say no and become the black sheep blocking Europe’s decision. Here is how many decisions that are against the interest of the country without particular difficulty. Aligning US interests with the European Union is another piece of this puzzle. In the end, the major opposition parties, almost without courage and imagination, held by the fear of one mind, do not offer much, if not to solve more problems and not the main part of the problem. That’s why we are about to hear: “Let’s take care of the purchasing power of the French and solve everything” or “it’s Macron and the socialists’ fault, they lowered the energy of our nuclear power system”. These major opposition parties are in the majority in the National Assembly, but almost no voices have been raised to quickly demand an extraordinary session on the significant problem caused by these anti-Russian sanctions. We should say anti-European or anti-French, because Russia will benefit from these sanctions to the tune of 100 billion euros in additional income, this year, when France has become poorer. And in the medium term, its energy outlets are guaranteed in Asia. But it is necessary to choose between two alternatives: to continue this way and have a long war in the heart of Europe, to see Europe and its people go through a deep economic and social decline, or find peace on the continent, to negotiate and, certainly, stop or, at least, soften these “sanctions”. Even if one is not responsible for it, war never brings anything but economic damage in its baggage.

This accumulation of all kinds of errors sometimes leads us to think that we live in an idiocracy. Whatever happens, it is inconceivable that the French will be sacrificed on the altar of stupidity (or a defense of a declining American hegemony). So it is not an economic problem but a political problem. The worst is never certain, but it is unthinkable not to guard against it. In the meantime, let’s prepare to face the storm, unless a miracle stops it before it hits our shores.

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