4-week trend: period until early September

By means of Regis CREPET, meteorologist

Every week, the monthly weather trends are updated. It runs until September 4 and coincides with the end of the summer holidays. This trend highlights the continuation of the mainly dry and hot weather in France with good conditions for holidaymakers. On the contrary, the drought will continue to worsen in many regions. However, as expected for several weeks, a more disturbed period will occur between August 15 and 21.

The month of July 2022 was marked by a historic drought as it was preceded by the driest July since 1959. It was warm with a period of general heat wave in the middle of July and was in 4th position among the driest Julys. It’s hotter in France.

The trend for the month of August is the continuation of the generally dry and hot weather in our country, despite the unstable weather between August 15 and 21. This instability results in the outbreak of thunderstorms and rain, but not everywhere. Although the weather may be temporarily less beautiful, it will not solve the problem of drought. In fact, the return of an anticyclonic period, dry and mostly hot, is expected in the last ten days of the month. In this regard, a new heat wave is possible at the end of August.

Week of August 8 to 14: summer time and always hot

Good summer weather should prevail in the country bordering the anticyclone located in the British Isles. The sun will prevail in most of our regions with the most heat storms at the end of the day in the south and east of the country, especially near the reliefs. Temperatures will be slightly lower than last week but above normal for the season. This may be the 4th heat wave of the summer, but the heat wave thresholds are not necessarily reached. Reliability remains limited by the intensity of this heat as well as the evolution of the weekend of August 15, when the weather may become stormy.

Week of August 15 to 21: more unstable and less hot weather

This 3rd week of August will see more unstable weather in our country, like a parenthesis in this very hot summer. Thunderstorms are expected to break out in a fairly generalized manner, followed by a drop in temperature with the temporary establishment of an oceanic westerly flow. In this configuration, the weather is not “bad” anywhere or every day, and holidaymakers will be able to take advantage of good clearings, especially in the southwest, where the development should be fast. This parenthesis will be too short and the rain will remain unable to prevent drought.

Week of August 22 to 28: anticyclonic weather

Reliability is limited at this time but weather conditions should become anticyclonic again. Vacationers will be grateful for the return of good weather after the more unstable mid-August break. It is necessary to refine the local forecast with the possibility of some thunderstorms in the southern reliefs while the sun may prevail in the north of our country due to a dry flow towards the east.

Week of August 29 to September 4: hot for the start of the school year?

The end of August and the beginning of September can be characterized by the weather becoming very hot, with a possible heat wave. Then, a stormy evolution may come from the west. This progress will be determined in future updates.

Finally, this month of August promises to be warmer than normal in France (with a possible anomaly around +2 °C) and with the continuation of the drought (deficit, forecast around 60%), after in a month of July marked by record dry land. The consequences of a rare drought can be very heavy and visible in our territory.

Next update, Thursday, August 11 at 5 pm.

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