“August is traditionally bad for the stock market, but who knows? “, Cat

Dennis Lantoine: Hi, I’m glad to see you again for this new cat. With a Cac 40 without much relief this Monday, but what could be more normal, the trend should rest a little, and that we will finally enter the summer season, after 31 publication within the Cac 40 and an increase of almost 9% last month. .

Jean-Marc: Hello Mr Lantoine, I hope you have fully recovered from Covid. What do you think the evolution can expect from the market in the next month? Can you follow up on the purchase advice for installing the Cac 40 SK14C? This is a loss of more than 50% since the councils of July 4 and 15. Good for you.

Hello Jean-Marc and thank you, yes, I am fully recovered and doing well!

As for the Cac 40, I tend to believe that it can top out in the short term, if only after this strong increase in July, although it will be achieved only in the second half of the year.

The factor linked to corporate publications, which have done well elsewhere in Europe, surprisingly well, is now behind us, as well as announcements from central banks, which will, especially Fed, to adopt a little more. dovish and thus prepare this month of August. The next rate hike may be limited to 50 basis points, instead of 75 basis points in the previous two meetings. The message, if understood as such, was appreciated by Wall Street.

Let’s also not forget, that, statistically, the month of August, after September, is the worst month of the year with an average score of -1.16% (-1.38% for September). 20 times in 33 years since the creation of Cac 40, the market ended this month of August in the red.

Once, the summer will be calm, waiting for the next inflation numbers in the United States in particular, for August and September, which will be further revealed before the next decision of the Fed.

This is why I tend to keep the placements we recommended earlier, even if they are now losers. I don’t think we can pass 6,200 points so easily.

Others: Hello, it looks like we are in a technical bounce above 6,500. In a context that is likely to lead Europe into recession, what can we expect from these levels? And what is the lower entry point you would suggest to start buying? Thank you.

Additional question to the previous one. If the Cac 40 returns this month, and if, I mean if, we have an ideal scenario of easing the inflation numbers in the next few months, from the beginning of the school year, I see both interesting level to set yourself up. : that of 6,100 points, which corresponds to the lows of early May and the small surge at the end of June. The other, lower, of course consists of a threshold of 5,800 points. But that’s still assuming a 9% decline in Cac 40, which means losing all of July’s gains. If we wait for a calm summer, we probably won’t be back.

Annoying: Last week, I asked about Sofy. You replied that there is a weekly article on this topic. But not in Somfy’s latest weekly issue. Can you tell us what to think of the title of Sofy? Thank you.

Hello, yes, I thought that an article would be devoted to Somfy in our last week, but the publications of the week are too many. So I replied to you today because we take a break from our chats like every year at this time.

The title fell 12.9% on Friday July 22 after the publication of turnover in the second quarter which was considered disappointing. Billings rose just 1.2% and fell 0.1% like-for-like, compared to increases of 9.7% in the first quarter and 15.7% in 2021.

The company indicated on this occasion that the operating margin to be revealed on September 7 will drop from the 26.6% achieved last year, a level considered very high.

Since this publication, the action has risen slightly but remains far from the 180 euros posted at the beginning of the year.

However, we fear that purchasing power problems will weigh on the group’s activity in the coming quarters. So it seems wiser to sell, especially because despite the fall in the stock, the valuation ratios remain relatively high.

Rivaud: Hello, what should we think of Walmart after the last bad reaction of the stock market?

The latest publication is indeed once again disappointing, with another sharp decline in the stock market, due to a decrease in purchasing power on the part of American consumers, who are forced to favor food and first-class products. products, which also offer better margins.

However, we maintain, in the context of our last week, our buy advice, from a long-term perspective, based on an enterprise value of gross operating surplus of 12 times for 2023 , which seems attractive to us.

Trebord: On July 1, you signaled the end of the flow for the FDJ29CS turbo calls (code B767S), it is still being quoted and it seems that the deactivating barrier has not been reached. Should they be kept?

But yeah, you’re right, I also see that it still rates. We made a mistake in our last position monitoring and I’m glad about it… We’ll re-examine this position this week. Thank you for your comment.

Nicholas: Hello Dennis. I own shares of Vivendi and the stock has dropped a lot recently. The sale of Edis is not very pleasant … Do you think that the title should be kept and it can be withdrawn? The stock is quoted at 9.30 while it was at 12 6 months ago. best regards Nicholas.

Yes, this announcement seems to have disappointed investors, and therefore it overshadowed the semi-annual data which we considered to be strong.

Revenue reached 4.9 billion euros, up 5.4% on an organic basis. Adjusted operating income amounted to 412 million euros, an increase of 31.5% a year.

Havas was the main contributor of the semester, ahead of Canal +, while the integration of Prisma for six months also contributed to the performance.

In the event of a recession and a sharp deterioration in the economic environment, Vivendi remains cautious but ready, if necessary, to adapt and reduce its costs.

When distributing Edis, care must be taken in the method used.

JeanVar: Hello. What do you think of Fluxys Belgium? Helpful.

Hi JeanVar, we do not follow this value unfortunately.

Vandendriessche Y: I have 350 shares of Albioma, should I sell or not sell at the current offer. Is there a risk in storage?

The offer ends on Wednesday, July 27. I refer you to the detailed article we published for this purpose last week. We recommend keeping the securities unless there is strong capital gain.

Well, our chat hour is almost over. As I told you, the cat also takes a little vacation. Our next chat will be held at the end of the month, on the 29th, and it is Rémi that you will have the pleasure of meeting for this back-to-school session. Thank you for your loyalty. I will tell you soon.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.