The timing could not be worse for a political crisis to erupt in Italy. While the European Union showed itself united in its support for Ukraine in the face of its aggression by Russia on February 24, Italy’s leader Mario Draghi was forced to resign on Thursday morning after three parties rejected his coalition in the Senate on Wednesday. night The president, Sergio Mattarella, then decided to dissolve the Assembly, triggering early elections.
Italy is now at risk of seeing more right-wing parties take power. Because the arch-favorite in the upcoming elections is the so-called “center-right” coalition, which unites Forza Italia, the right-wing party of Silvio Berlusconi, and the far right represented by La Ligue of the populist anti -migrant tribune Matteo Salvini and Fratelli d’Italia. What consequences for Italy, the European Union and France will this coming to power of the far right? 20 minutes asked the question to Dominique Moïsi, special advisor of the Institut Montaigne, according to whom “the risk is to create contagion in other European countries”, including France.
What is the timetable for legislative elections?
These early elections due to the dissolution of the Assembly of the Italian head of state should be held at the end of September or the beginning of October. The Italian media put several possible dates for these elections: September 18 and 25, or October 2. If several dates are mentioned, the only certainty: it must be held within 70 days after the dissolution of parliament. After that, the parliament must meet within 20 days after the poll. In the meantime, the local government continues to manage current affairs.
The situation is complicated by the budget, which must be presented to the parliament on October 15. The organization of the elections, the election campaign, the appointment of a government and then his assumption of office upset this calendar. But according to The echoesthis date could be brought forward before the election and allow Marion Draghi a final act of power.
What political future is taking shape in Italy?
If we don’t sell the skin of the bear before killing it, the polls agree to place the far right party as favorites in the race, led by the Brothers of Italy, led by Giorgia Meloni. The latter was given a lead of almost 24% of the voting intentions, ahead of the Democratic Party (22%) and the League of Matteo Salvini (14%), according to a poll by the SWG institute conducted on July 18. The sulphurous party former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, Forza Italia, due to win 7.4% of the vote and Giuseppe Conte’s 5 Star Movement (M5S) 11.2%.
According to Dominique Moïsi, “we still have visions of what will happen” and “Giorgia Meloni was quoted to succeed Mario Draghi”, he predicted. “This vision of an alliance with far-right parties taking power is worrying,” he added.
What consequences for Italy?
In fact, this rise of extreme parties may harm the image of Italy. The country “which has once again become self-confident, legitimate and led by a reasonable and competent hand thanks to Mario Draghi will take on a populist dimension, which, for the first time, is the risk of an illiberal democracy among the founding countries of the European Union”, predicted the special adviser of the Institut Montaigne.
For Italians, it also has a change in policy, especially on the question of immigration. Italy is one of the front line countries facing the flow of refugees who want to flee poverty, war or repression in their country of origin. If Frères d’Italie lead Forza Italia and La Ligue on their side, the behavior of migrants is dangerously different, “less humanist”. “When there are populists in power in Italy, they have been until now, there it is completely different”, warns Dominique Moïsi.
What are the changes in the economic level?
In addition, while Mario Draghi has so far succeeded in imposing a program of major economic reforms, making Italy once again a good student of the European Union, this can easily be changed. “If this coalition comes to power, will it not engage in a populist economic policy? asked Dominique Moïsi. And to develop: “There is a risk of opening the treasury to favor purchasing power before even what other consideration, involving a risk to the balance of the European Union, knowing that the country is the third economy of the EU. »
And if in the short term, this economic vision will benefit Italians, in the long term, on the other hand, it can be very bad, with a “debt that will run and doubt the stability of Italy “, many are specialists.
What effects can be seen for the European Union?
If Dominique Moïsi does not believe in the possibility of an Italian-style Brexit, “the risk is to spread. If the Italians succeeded in electing the far right, why not France tomorrow, and other countries the day after tomorrow? This the pattern is dangerous”.
Especially since there is also a risk of an alliance of member countries with right-wing governments, such as Viktor Orban’s Hungary, with a policy of nationalism and populism. This will then raise the question of EU unity, especially in the hot war file in Ukraine. “Giorgia Meloni follows the positions of Mario Draghi in Russia, but this is not the case of Matteo Salvini or Sivio Berlusconi, famous for their closeness to Vladimir Poutine”, recalls Dominique Moïsi.
Will France also undergo this change of power?
This trend, if confirmed in the fall, “is not good news for Emmanuel Macron”. The French president and the former Italian Prime Minister have a privileged relationship, they are “two men who understand each other, who appreciate each other”, lined the specialist. Especially since the tenant of the Elysée and Matteo Salvini already share old fights about the Franco-Italian border, which some refugees tried.
“So there is a risk for Emmanuel Macron and the Franco-Italian relationship, and beyond, for European unity, his image and his choices in terms of foreign policy”, analyzed Dominique Moïsi.